January 23 marks the start of the Year of the Black Dragon in Chinese, Korean, and Vietnamese astrology, an auspicious year which comes just once every 60 years. In these cultures, the dragon is considered a symbol of power, traditionally associated with royalty, and so the Year of the Dragon is considered a particularly influential year.

Across Asia, from Hong Kong to Seoul to Singapore, couples are changing their future plans in hopes of delivering a Dragon baby. According to China’s state-run Xinhua news agency, the country expects a 5% increase in births this year. Officials in Singapore say that they have seen rises of 10% or more in Dragon years. In fact, the spike in births can be felt even in the U.S., with hospitals in Queens reporting a rise in births last time the Year of the Dragon came around.

Superstitious parents hope to take advantage of the attributes that a Dragon baby is said to have. Dragons are said to be innovative, passionate, and ready for challenges. They are also said to be charismatic leaders, to have courage and wisdom, and to bring their entire family good luck. That’s a lot of pressure for an astrological sign. But for all that these parents believe that their timing is auspicious, a glimpse to the future reveals that giving birth in the Year of the Dragon may prove to be quite unlucky.

Even under the best of circumstances, Asian students face incredibly stiff academic competition. In fact, academic competition is so stiff that South Korea had to pass a law banning late-night cram sessions at tutoring centers or hagwons. Hagwons are so common in Korea that in 2010, 74% of all students engaged in some sort of private after school tutoring – in fact, there are more private instructors in Korea than there are schoolteachers. All of this tutoring leads up to just one very important test, a test which can make or break a Korean student’s future. In China, matters are even worse: The desire to attend prestigious universities is so great that a new education industry has boomed, an industry entirely devoted to helping Chinese teens earn admission at American schools by falsifying recommendations, transcripts, and admissions essays.

With academic competition already so stiff that students quite literally make themselves ill from a lack of sleep, is it really wise to introduce a baby into an even more competitive year? A baby boom in the 2012 Year of the Black Dragon will mean that in and around 2029, when these babies become 17-year-old students, academic competition will grow even stiffer.

For proof, look to the United States. The U.S. has experienced an echo of the baby boom. Since the mid-1990s, the number of high school graduates has increased steadily, growing from 3 million in 1997 to a peak of 3.3 million in 2009; though that number is expected to decline, it is projected to remain at or above 3.2 million students through 2022. These record breaking numbers have led to an increase in the number of college applicants, but even as the applicant pool has increased, the number of spots available at U.S. colleges has not. Through simple supply and demand, the college admissions race has grown ever more competitive.

This college admissions season has been among the most competitive on record with enormous numbers of students being deferred or rejected in early admissions. In addition to the increase in American applicants, this year’s seniors have had to face added competition from overseas applicants, particularly those from China and Korea. A baby boom, whether here or in Asia, would undoubtedly create added competition a few years down the road. In fact, a mere 5% increase in births in China could produce tens of thousands of additional college applicants, making entrance to college even more difficult. No amount of astrologically granted wisdom and charisma can overcome the basic statistics: More births now means more competition later. Those potential parents who believe that a positive astrological sign is desirable may in fact be creating a situation in which their children will have to overcome even greater challenges.

And so the question remains: Is it worth having an auspicious astrological sign if it means facing an uphill battle later in life?